The world will throw up surprises, but forming clear strategies can avert catastrophe say cat tully, alun rhydderch and peter glenday. By jonathan tucker in discussing the value of strategic foresight, it is important to distinguish it from forecasting. Foresight tools and systems, which identify and follow new events in the. Technology foresight tool for future skills needs identification and contributors to the skills technology foresight guide. Two components are organically linked to strategic foresight.
Exploring futures the houston way andy hines, peter c. Summary information packet open pdf 194 kb the world is changing in profound ways. This is where strategic foresight becomes important in your planning process. Practicing strategic foresight in government the web site cannot. Introduction foresight concepts strategic concepts evolutionary concepts. In the evolution of strategic foresight he explains how the practice of strategic. Aug 25, 2008 strategic foresight strategic foresight is the capacity that emerges in organisations when people whose foresight capacities are overt, work together to build strategic processes that take a long view.
Case study emonitor pty ltd is a privatelyowned australian company which manufacturers and distributes pollution monitoring equipment for air. Global strategic foresight community reports world. Your competitors may implode under the pressure of a future they. From theory to practise methods, tools and culture white paper july 20. This evolution will be easier and faster if we who are foresight researchers and practitioners explicitly understand what foresight 2. The evolution of foresight and its impact on policy making. Foresight aims to fi ll the order that organizations need to be adapted to and foresee the changes needed to lead a desirable evolution, infl uence despite the limits of predicting change taking place inside and outside organizations, anticipating crucial developments is possible. Introduction to strategic foresight michel godets presentation unesco 630 2010 anticipation action appropriation m i c h e l g o d e t. After thinking about the evolution of cooperation in a social context, i realized that the findings also had implications for biological evolution. Our study, whose purpose, business historical focus, and structure mirrors graham allisons famous conceptual. Foresight is a necessity for companies aiming to survive as the. Strategic foresight for the built environment stok. Strategic foresight advice should be broadly based, and wherever possible backed up by empirical evidence, so that it can be contested and debated by others in the policy domain.
To effectively spot new trends, strategic foresight teams need to have a much wider range of information sources than. This magisterial new account answers these questions by tracing the history of western thinking about strategy the employ. Scenario planning plays a prominent role in strategic foresight. The evolution of strategy is there a western way of war which pursues battles of annihilation and singleminded military victory. To assess and select strategic options software for strategic prospective are free and available online in english. Martin bakule, gregg cornelius, nijhawan dinesh, bernd dworschak, anastasia fetsi, mihaela ghi. Foresight and futures studies have a special interest on futures. These changes will significantly alter how the emergency management community will do its job in the future and will require creative and collaborative thinking and action.
An agenda and other information will be sent to registered participants a few days prior to the lab. Contribution of the innovation hub to nato strategic foresight analysis februaryjuly 2015 the views and opinions expressed in this publication strictly reflect the discussions held on the innovation hub forums. Inferring in foresight the evolution of strategic foresight taylor. But leaders who embrace uncertainty and remain creatively open in scenario development and foresight planning can glean invaluable insight into the best strategic course for their firms. The practice of strategic foresight is inherently foggy around the edges. University strategic planning and the foresightfutures approach. Strategy and related concepts are hard to define, even if the topic has been discussed for decades. Pdf the evolution of strategy download full pdf book.
Strategic foresight can make the future a safer place. The evolution of strategy available for download and read online in other formats. Building a strategic foresight capacity slideshare. Strategy is a high level plan to achieve one or more goals under conditions of uncertainty. In the united states, it was deployed by the rand corporation in pursuit of military strategic planning. In the evolution of strategic foresight he explains how the practice of strategic foresight has long been closely associated with the.
It systems can assist with the growing complexity of strategic foresight methods. The evolution of strategic foresight navigating public. Tuomo kuosa describes how something not traditionally considered an independent discipline, is steadily becoming one. The evolution of strategic foresight tuomo kuosa bok. Strategic innovation is about creation of new markets and leaps in customer value and reshaping the existing markets to achieve value improvements for customers gebauer, worch. The value of strategic foresight presidential transition 2016. This formalized my skills and experience in an area where i already did a good deal of work. The evolution of strategic intelligence this course will examine the uses of strategic intelligence by world leaders in shaping policy, and the effects of intelligence on world events. Drawing on the wisdom of the past, the evolution of strategic foresight by tuomo kuosa guides the reader through strategic thought to the present and guides to the future.
Sami consulting, 2b northbrook court, park street, newbury, rg14 1ea, uk article info abstract article history. What made that conflict infamous was the oil embargo. The evolution of cooperation in strategic alliances. Yorkovich the tool whats the difference between strategic planning and strategic foresight. The meetings included a discussion of a key terms used in the practice of strategic foresight and b the patterns of thinking about the future that. Various uses of intelligence collecting information, analysis, counterintelligence and secret operationswill be. Lecture plan revision of previous class strategic management process phase 1 environmental analysistools used methods of environmental forecasting 2 3. The end of strategic planning and the rise of strategic. Highlights from the strategic foresight initiative. By contrast, strategic foresight seeks to help decision makers think through uncertainty. By taking a longterm, proactive approach to thinking about potential futures, lessons are learned about what is wanted and not wanted in time to still do something about it, rather than only having the option to be reactive, as only what is imagined can be created. The value of strategic foresight presidential transition. Sfi was launched so the emergency management community can seek to understand how the world is. For predicting the future introduction of foresight tools a cookbook.
Combining different foresight methods and integrating expert opinions transform the strategic foresight process into a powerful but major undertaking. Office for official publications of the european communities. Linking strategic thinking more broadly to futurology, however, it is quite new. Strategic foresight happens when any planner uses scanned inputs, forecasts, alternative futures exploration, analysis and feedback to produce or alter plans and actions of the organization. Navigating public policy making kindle edition by kuosa, tuomo. They do not reflect those of supreme allied command of transformation sact or its member. Planning considers a multitude of factors in the present environment, measures them and then extrapolates the data into the future.
Strategic foresight also offers the opportunity to influence the future. In october 2011 i was awarded the degree of master of design in strategic foresight and innovation from ocad university our building was recently hailed as one of the strangest buildings in the world by. Core terms for strategic foresight and three levels of competence in foresight work background in midjune 2011, the alberta foresight community gathered in both calgary and edmonton. Consider practical applications of using strategic foresight to influence strategic decision making to benefit you, as a senior executive, and the organization you lead. Glenn, ceo, the millennium project according to my professional experience dr tuomo kuosa is one of leading experts in the foresight field.
Embracing the theory and practice of strategic foresight and illuminating how different schools of thought regard its role in policy making, tuomo kuosa. For example, the playbook for strategic foresight and innovation, produced by a consortium of. The scientific field is weakly organized and there is a lack of theoretical progress. Strategic foresight analysis 20 report 3 introduction strategic foresight is the ability to create and sustain a variety of high quality forward views and to apply the emerging insights in organisationally useful ways. Summary of findings may 2011 summary the strategic foresight initiative sfi is a collaborative effort of the emergency management community facilitated by the federal emergency management agency fema. Is warfare on a path to ever greater destructive force. Received 8 january 2010 received in revised form 22 may 2010 accepted 15 june 2010 this article discusses the role of scenarios in strategic foresight. The evolution of strategic foresight navigating public policy. Pdf the evolution of strategic foresight navigating. Jan 20, 2017 the value of forecasting is clear and is directly related to its ability to accurately predict events of concern to decision makers. Linking organizational change management and organizational. So i collaborated with a biologistwilliam hamiltonto develop the biological implications of these strategic ideas. Practising strategic foresight in government the cases of finland, singapore and the european union tuomo kuosa s.
The evolution of cooperation pdf summary truly, we couldnt help but notice that cooperation emerges in various forms, depending on the environmental factors. To purchase this ebook for personal use, or in paperback or hardback. Strategic foresight sf is the ability to create and maintain a highquality, coherent and functional forward view and to use the insights arising in organisationally useful ways. In the evolution of strategic foresight he explains how the practice of strategic foresight has long been closely.
Download it once and read it on your kindle device, pc, phones or tablets. Chapter on the foundations of the popular strategic foresight class created and taught by the author within the mba in design strategy at california college of the arts, san francisco. Economies, draft final report of the expert group blueprints for foresight actions in the regions, luxembourg. The evolution of strategic foresight 10 strategic foresight in the public policy making of other countries and transnational organizations 173 part iii process 185 11 how could the strategic foresight process better facilitate national decision making. Strategic foresight is the ability to create and sustain a variety of high quality forward views and to apply the emerging insights in organizationally useful ways. Use features like bookmarks, note taking and highlighting while reading the evolution of strategic foresight. It is about mirroring the possible and potential futures against the understanding of organizationspecific capabilities, and those of ones competitors. An emerging field with a rich tradition introductory paper for special issue corporate foresight technological forecasting and social change, 2015 by rene rohrbeck aarhus university, business and social sciences, department of management, bartholins alle 10, 8000 aarhus c, denmark. If you are a society or association member and require assistance with obtaining online access instructions please contact our. Strategic foresight uses a variety of methods to assess possible future events. It starts by discussing the need for strategic foresight over the next decade, and a set of qualities, structures and processes that facilitate the use of strategic foresight for renewal. In the evolution of strategic foresight he explains how the practice of strategic foresight has long been closely associated. Embracing the theory and practice of strategic foresight and illuminating how different schools of thought regard its role in policy making, tuomo kuosa describes how something not traditionally considered an independent discipline, is steadily becoming one. Strategic foresight is a concept i deem synonymous with corporate foresight.
Strategic foresight in government tuomo kuosa practising strategic foresight in government the cases of finland, singapore and the european union. A handbook of strategic prospective, unesco publishing, 1993. Robert loves to use reallive vivid examples to give a brief explanation on how collaboration or. Forecasting seeks to predict discrete events in the future. In europe, france led the way with foresight as the main methodology used by. While the approach has a long history, it burst into the news in 1973. Feb 17, 2015 evolution of the strategic management 1. Strategic foresight initiative getting urgent about the future summary of findings may 2011 summary the strategic foresight initiative sfi is a collaborative effort of the emergency management community facilitated by the federal emergency management agency fema. The role of scenarios in strategic foresight gill ringland. Bishop graduate program in futures studies, university of houston, 4800 calhoun road, 110 cameron building, houston, tx 772046020, usa. The end of strategic planning and the rise of strategic foresight. The value of strategic foresight is less obvious because its benefits, such as enhanced capacity to perceive change, are indirect and less readily measured. Using examples from 30 different countries and with access to interviews and workshops involving key experts, the evolution of strategic foresight will be. Using strategic foresight to influence strategic decision.
Contribution of the innovation hub to nato strategic. Download pdf the evolution of strategy book full free. This article discusses the role of scenarios in strategic foresight. Since strategic foresight refers to the practice of generating analyses of alternative futures and. For one, resultsbased management rbm demands an enhanced cohe1. It employs scenarios to consider how trends and developments in a number of areas may come. Phd, futures studies author of the evolution of strategic foresight and multiple other books.
A glossary of core terms for strategic foresight and three. Bower many it leaders focus on creating strategic plans without thoroughly engaging strategic thinking and therefore miss out on the benefits of strategic foresight for their organizations. This resulted in a paper published in science axelrod and hamilton 1981. The evolution of cooperation pdf summary robert axelrod. Published on may 10, 2016 may 10, 2016 166 likes 21 comments. Foresight emerged as a futures methodology in a number of fields following world war ii. Strategic foresight strategic foresight is the capacity that emerges in organisations when people whose foresight capacities are overt, work together to build strategic processes that take a long view. The role of scenarios in strategic foresight sciencedirect. In that year a war broke out in the middle east that became known as the yom kippur war. In the evolution of strategic foresight he explains how the practice of strategic foresight has long been closely associated with the military and politics. Using examples from 30 different countries and with access to interviews and workshops involving key experts, the evolution of strategic foresight will be valuable to scholars, educators, students. You can prepare for this scenario by looking into the future and planning in the present. University strategic planning and the foresightfutures. Practicing strategic foresight at the company level for those bold companies wanting to actively pursue the future for innovation opportunities, there are a number of strategic foresight frameworks that can guide a practice at the company level.
1177 350 1474 783 1236 1084 719 1161 182 959 1504 389 857 294 149 792 181 904 314 648 1352 556 88 614 43 559 1134 542 690 163 264 426 521 1351 595 517 1263 1111 1483 92 252 218 227 1301 476 560